Author’s note: This is the analysis of one round of the 2024 Presidential debate between Biden and Trump. It is linked from a more comprehensive article.
TAPPER: You want to impose a 10 percent tariff on all goods coming into the U.S. How will you ensure that that doesn’t drive prices even higher?
TRUMP: Not going to drive them higher. It’s just going to cause countries that have been ripping us off for years, like China and many others, in all fairness to China – it’s going to just force them to pay us a lot of money, reduce our deficit TREMENDOUSLY, and give us a lot of power for other things.
Hyperbole and vague promises.
Depending on who you talk to, this is a debatable fact or an lie. Tariffs raise revenue, but by very little. Trump tariffs produced $69 billion out of a gross revenue earning of $3.5 trillion, or less than two-tenths of a percent. Certainly not enough to make a dent in the deficit. However, the net gain was only $8 million as the government provided $61 million in subsidies to farmers to offset their losses.
Tariffs also drive prices higher by shifting costs to different segments of the economy. Price increases are regressive—affecting families with lower incomes than wealthy families. Retailers, even large chains, either eat the losses, reducing their profits, or pass on the cost to consumers. That’s inflation. Small manufacturers and other businesses also have to make the eat losses or raise prices decision when they import parts and equipment not manufacture in America.
But he – he made a statement. The only thing he was right about is I gave you the largest tax cut in history. I also gave you the largest regulation cut in history. That’s why we had all the jobs. And the jobs went down and then they bounced back and he’s taking credit for bounceback jobs. You can’t do that.
Totally irrelevant. Tax cuts have nothing to do with tariffs.
It’s also a red herring. He’s using regulation cuts to switch focus away from tariffs.
Claims are true, but he makes an unwarranted assumption. He assumes tax and regulation cuts are good.
This is also a causation fallacy. There could be many reasons the job market grew (which it did prior to COVID) besides (or even in addition to) tax and regulation cuts. We learned this lesson during COVID, where jobs were lost while his tax cuts and regulation changes remained in place.
In fact, neither tax cuts nor regulation changes were good for the economy. Trump policies, including the tax cuts, increased the national debt by $7.8 trillion, even before the COVID stimulus. Nor did they deliver the promised economic benefits. They disproportionately benefited the rich, and “there is little evidence that the law’s costly corporate tax cuts delivered promised growth or improved well-being for the vast majority of the nation’s workforce.”
Environmental regulation rollbacks significantly increased greenhouse gas emissions and caused thousands of deaths from poor air quality. His business regulation rollbacks decreased worker safety and cost American families more than $42 billion per year. So when he speaks of his rollbacks as positive, he means positive for his wealthy contributors.
He also said he inherited 9 percent inflation. No, he inherited almost no inflation and it stayed that way for 14 months. And then it blew up under his leadership, because they spent money like a bunch of people that didn’t know what they were doing. And they don’t know what they were doing. It was the worst – probably the worst administration in history. There’s never been.
Yet another tu quoque fallacy
Another red herring and also completely irrelevant. Even if we assume Biden policies caused inflation, that doesn’t mean tariffs won’t.
Wow, how does anyone unpack this? Hesounds like a kid shouting, “I know you are, but what am I?” Yes, Biden has consistently lied about inheriting 9 percent inflation, however he is conflating inflation when he took office with the causes of inflation which were already in place, including the Trump stimulus, increased demand as the country recovered from COVID, and supply chain disruptions caused by COVID.
However, the statement that inflation blew up because they spent money like a “bunch of people that didn’t know what they were doing,” is
a disputed claim (see the previous paragraph),
a gross exaggeration on several counts,
a false cause fallacy, and
a logical fallacy called an ad hominem fallacy, which he bases his argument on characterization. Particularly, “bunch of people that didn’t know what they were doing.” While we might reasonably make the characterization about some legislators, most are reasonable and competent, including many Republicans.
It’s also a lie. The inflation spike hit the country before Congress passed the Biden initiatives (as indicated by the name “Inflation Reduction Act”).
The claim that Biden’s is the worst administration in American history is a gross exaggeration and lie. In fact (as they will scrap over later in the debate), the Presidential Greatness Project rated Biden 14th and Trump as the worst President of all time. I admit the final rankings are debatable, but the claim that Biden is the worst is patently false.
And as far as Afghanistan is concerned, I was getting out of Afghanistan, but we were getting out with dignity, with strength, with power. He got out, it was the most embarrassing day in the history of our country’s life.
Yet another ad hominem and tu quoque fallacy. Trump loves to blame his opponents.
Trump is already over the place. Mixing rebuttal against Biden with his answers on the issue with rapid fire switches and compound claims. This makes it extremely difficult for his opponent to follow.
Debatable claim. Trump negotiated a peace deal with the Taliban, and then backed away as soon as chaos broke out in Afghanistan when the deal went into effect. Furthermore, his own generals have testified the agreement weakened securityand contributed to that chaos. For him now to claim we were “getting out with dignity, with strength, with power” seems disingenuous.
“The most embarrassing day in the history of our country’s life” is a gross exaggeration, and belittling comment. How could we measure national embarrassment? Was the Afghanistan withdrawal more embarrassing than the Kennedy or Lincoln assassinations? The stock market crash of 1929? Nixon’s resignation? Our withdrawal from Vietnam? The Japanese catching us with our pants down at Pearl Harbor. Or the World Trade Center attacks? The day a jury convicted a former president of 34 felony counts? Or the January 6 riots in the Capitol? It’s a long list, but Trump’s on it twice, and Biden only once.